2012 Premier Primer: Atlanta Falcons

Over the past 2 NFL seasons few offenses have been as consistent and efficient as the Atlanta Falcons have been.  Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has moved on, accepting the Head Coaching position with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and coincidently Mike Smith has brought former Jags staff mate Dirk Koetter in to run the Atlanta offense in 2012.  Inheriting a far more explosive group than he had to work with in Jacksonville, Koetter is expecting to spread open the offense and Roddy White has expressed that he expects to share more balls this season.

DailyLife Images

Let’s start with the Falcon receiving group. Last season when the Dirty Birds traded their draft lot to Cleveland to acquire the services of Julio Jones many people anticipated that White would lose ground to the explosive rookie. That was far from the case, as the “Hot Rod” once again led all NFL wide outs in targets for the second straight season (181 targets in ’10, 179 in ’11) and was the 5^th ranked WR in fantasy. Here’s a look at the effect Jones had on White and tight end Tony Gonzalez from their 2010 production to last season.

2010	Targets	Rec.	Yds.	TD
White	181	115	1389	10
Gonzalez	111	70	656	6
2011
White	179	100	1296	8
Gonzalez	116	80	875	7

You can see White is a model of consistency and even if he draws fewer looks there is no way he still isn’t going to give you WR1 production.  White is currently being drafted as the 8^th WR in drafts and overall at 26.7 per FantasyToolbox, three spots behind fellow WR Julio Jones (23.8).

Jones himself was quite productive in his inaugural campaign. Hampered by a hamstring injury he missed 3 games and left another early and still managed 54 rec 959 yds and 8 TD on 95 targets in only those 12 plus games.  He only managed 6 + receptions in 3 games last season and in those games White also posted 6+ catches in all 3. He also showed his boom or bust ability by scoring fewer than 3 pts in 3 games (White 1) but reaching double digits in 6 of his 12 games (White 9).  I like Jones slightly more in standard scoring leagues due to his high yardage ceiling and TD but White still gets the edge in PPR formats barely.

Matt Ryan has been at the controls of the passing attack , finishing as top 10 fantasy quarterback the past 2 seasons. With the addition of Jones, Ryan actually posted nearly identical passing numbers except for an increase in yardage in 2011.

	Comp.	Att.	Yds.	TD	INT	Yds/Att
2010	357	571	3705	28	9	6.5
2011	347	566	4177	29	12	7.4

Ryan nearly averaged a full yard more per attempt in 2011 due to the fact he was throwing more passes downfield to his playmakers.  Jones seen 36% of his looks on routes 15 yards or more downfield while White (27.7%) increased (25.9%) the same from his 2010. Gonzalez benefited the most seeing 14.1 % of his targets 15+ yards up the field, his highest total since 2007.  The yardage boost seen Ryan throw for 300+ yards 6 times last season (1 in 2010) and he attempted 40+ passes in 7 games. Ryan is currently being drafted as the10th QB in mocks and could be great value for owners who wait on the QB position.

FanPop Images

A big reason why owners are going to want to add players in the Falcons passing attack is they play the #1 easiest passing schedule in the NFL in 2012.  Only facing 4 defenses (KC,SD,PHI,WAS) that ranked in the top 15 passing defenses all season in 2011 and not one after their week 8 matchup with the Eagles.  The Falcons offensive line does a fantastic job of keeping Ryan from getting hit as well, only allowing 23 sacks in 2010 and 26 in 2011.

The one player expected to be hurt by the new offense is running back Michael Turner. But Turner is so popular as a bust candidate that I believe he’s going to actually be a great value come draft day. Turner really tailed off late last season, only rushing for more than 76 yards in 1 of his final 6 games but he still posted 1371 rushing yards and 12 TDS while reaching 300 carries for the third season in 4 years. Looking at the previous mentioned passing stats the Falcons had and notice that Turner rushed for 1300 yards and double digits TD’s in both of the same seasons while being a top 10 scorer at his position in each. All while not catching passes, so third down back JaQuizz Ridgers still won’t be much of a threat in his production. The fantasy community seems to think he’s going to turn into a fantasy pumpkin this season as he’s being drafted as the 23^rd RB and 62 overall. Even with fewer carries he’s still going to provide lower end RB1 numbers as a pick that can be had possibly in the 4^th round. Owners going with WR as their first 2 picks will want to look for him as their bell cow if he falls that far in their darfts.  

Sports Illustrated Images

Not only do the Falcons have the league’s best schedule facing opposing pass defenses. They also have the best schedule facing teams who stop the run. Coming up they face only 4 teams (DAL,PHI, NO x2) who ranked in the top half of the league versus the run last season.  2012 points to a fantastic season to own stock in the Falcons offense.

Fantasy predictions:

Ryan:  376/594  4,440 yds 33 TD 12 INT

White: 165 targets 92 catches 1185 yds 10 TD

Jones: 132 targets 76 catches 1230 yds 12 TD

Gonzalez: 105 targets 72 catches 724 yds 6 TD

Turner: 244 carries 1078 yds 10 TD

Home Cooking or Eating Out?

Every baseball stadium is unique and they all play differently, from Coor's Field in Colorado to Petco Park in San Diego. What players are posting the best home stats and what players like to get away?


Edwin Encarnacion 1B/3B TOR
Home: .320 (31/97) 20 R  12 HR  26 RBI  1.160 OPS
Away: .243 (26/107) 10 R 5 HR 17 RBI  .708 OPS

Dexter Fowler OF COL
Home: .354 (34/96) 26 R 7 HR 26 RBI  1.169 OPS
Away: .184 (9/49) 7 R 1 HR 3 RBI  .620 OPS

Adam LaRoche 1B WAS
Home: .200 (15/75) 4 R 1 HR 14 RBI  .307 SLG
Away: .333 (33/99) 14 R 7 HR 21 RBI .657 SLG

Jason Kipnis 2B CLE
Home: .225 (22/129) 22 R   3 HR  14 RBI
Away:  .365 (31/85)  16 R  6 HR 20 RBI

Hanley Ramirez 3B/SS MIA
Home: .366 (37/101) 19 R 5 HR 19 RBI 1.034 OPS
Away: .195 (22/113) 14 R 6 HR 17 RBI  .674 OPS

Kyle Seager 3B SEA
Home: .200 (14/70) 7 R 1 HR 9 RBI  .616 OPS
Away: .317 (38/120) 21 R 6 HR 23 RBI  .900 OPS

David Ortiz DH BOS
Home: .376 (38/101) 22 R 7 HR 23 RBI 14 2B .723 SLG
Away:  .255 (26/102) 15 R 6 HR 14 RBI 4 2B  .471 SLG

Corey Hart OF MIL
Home: ..294 (30/102) 21 R 8 HR 15 RBI .637 SLG
Away: .210 (21/100) 11 R  3 HR 9 RBI  .350 SLG

David Price SP TB
Home: 4-1 37.2 INN  .96 ERA  .90 WHIP 1 HR Allowed
Away: 3-2  36 INN  4.00 ERA  1.53 WHIP  4 HR All.

Tom Milone SP OAK
Home: 4-1  36.2 INN  .98 ERA  .85 WHIP  1 HR All.
Away: 2-4  34.2 INN  6.23 ERA  1.47 WHIP 7 HR All.

Bud Norris SP HOU
Home: 3-0  33.2 INN 1.60 ERA 1.07 WHIP .189 OPP AVG
Away: 2-2   30 INN 7.80 ERA 1.83 WHIP .326 AVG

Carlos Zambrano SP MIA
Home: 1-2 30 INN  4.50 ERA  1.57 WHIP  4.8 BB/9
Away:  3-1  43.2 INN  1.65 ERA  .80 WHIP  2.68 BB/9

Zack Greinke SP MIL
Home: 3-0 34.2 INN 1.30 ERA .84 WHIP  .184 OPP AVG
Away:3-2 30.1 INN 5.93 ERA 1.88 WHIP  .359 OPP AVG

Kyle Drabek SP TOR
Home: 3-0 32.1 INN 2.51 ERA 1.14 WHIP 1 HR 27 K
Away: 1-4  29.2 INN 6.98 ERA 1.99 WHIP  8 HR  19 K

On Twitter@LordReebs

Casting A Line June 4-10

A current look at underowned fantasy options that are trending up.

AJ Burnett SP PIT

Take away one start (5/2 @ STL - 12 ER) and  Burnett has been dominant for the Pirates. Notching 5 straight Quality Starts (3-0 1.57 ERA 25/8 K/BB) he has been the no. 10 SP in fantasy over the past 28 days. He's allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his 8 starts this season while not allowing any runs in 3 starts including his past 2 turns.


Justin Smoak 1B SEA

Saying the Mariners 25 year old first baseman has been a dissapointment since being traded for Cliff Lee would be an understatement. In his first full season in Seattle he hit only .234 with 15 HR 55 RBI. After another brutal April (.211) to start this season Smoak has seemingly begun to tap into the potential the M's seen in him. Over the past 3 weeks he is hammering the ball, hitting .315 7 HR 19 RBI over his past 73 at bats. Ranking as the #6 fantasy 1B over the same stretch.


Quintin Berry OF DET

 Berry has hit .361 and stolen 6 bases and scored 11 runs since filling in for injured lead off man Austin Jackson. Jackson is not going to be ready to come off of the DL as soon as expected allowing Berry to remain hitting at the top of a productive Tigers lineup. The former Phillie's prospect has stolen 40 + bases in 4 of last 5 minor league seasons and could provide some cheap speed for owners for the short term.

Lonnie Chisenhall  3B CLE

Once a top prospect, Chisenhall struggled in his first taste of the big leagues hitting just .255 over the 66 games he played last season. After a horrible spring and losing the starting duties , Chisenhall began the season in Columbus and found his groove posting a .319/.352/.531 line. Now with Jack Hanahan on the DL, the third baseman has been called up and gone 6/17 with 2 HR and 2 SB in his first week of action. With all of the third base injuries , Chisenhall could provide 12-15 HR power the rest of the way out if he can remain in the big leagues.


On Twitter @ LordReebs

All Stars/Scrubs Teams from May

Top Fantasy Performers / Underachievers from the month of May

Catcher

Star:  Carlos Ruiz -PHI : 33/79 (.417) 16 R 5 HR 21 RBI 2 SB
Scrub: Matt Weiters - BAL : 18/96 (.187) 16 R 2 HR 7 RBI

First Base

Star : Paul Konerko - CHW : 36/95 (.378) 18 R 6 HR 18 RBI 0 SB
Scrub : Eric Hosmer - KC : 22/101 (.217) 7 R 1 HR 12 RBI 1 SB

Second Base:

Star : Jason Kipnis - CLE : 36/122 (.295) 21 R 5 HR 18 RBI 7 SB
Scrub : Rickie Weeks - MIL : 7/91 (.131) 6 R 2 HR 6 RBI 0 SB

Shortstop

Star: Rafael Furcal - STL : 38/109 (.348) 23R 4 HR 14 RBI 5 SB
Scrub : Dee Gordon - LA : 18/90 (.244) 9 R 1 HR 6 RBI 4 SB

Third Base

Star : Mark Trumbo - ANA : 40/109 (.367)  13 R 7 HR 18 RBI 3 SB
Scrub : Michael Young - TEX : 29/118 (.245) 1 HR 9 RBI 0 SB

Outfield

Stars:
Giancarlo Stanton -MIA : 37/108 (.342) 23 R 12 HR 30 RBI 3 SB
Carlos Gonzalez - COL : 40/114 (.351) 26 R 10 HR 26 RBI 4 SB
Josh Hamilton - TEX : 33/96 (.344) 19 R 12 HR 32 RBI 2 SB
Melky Cabrera - SF : 51/119 (.429) 24 R 3 HR 17 RBI 4 SB
Carlos Beltran - STL : 30/92 (.327) 15 R 10 HR 31 RBI 1 SB

Scrubs:
Alex Gordon - KC : 27/112 (.241) 12 R 0 HR 10 RBI 0 SB
Jay Bruce - CIN : 22/96 (.223) 4 HR 15 RBI 0 SB
Jason Heyward - ATL : 19/95 (.200) 4 HR 14 RBI 1 SB
Ichiro SEA : 28/108 (.250) 14 R 0 HR 8 RBI 5 SB
Nick Swisher NYY : 18/87 (.206) 7 R 2 HR 9 RBI 0 SB

Starting Pitchers:

Stars:
Cole Hamels PHI: 6 Games Started 5-0 record 44 inn. 44 K 2.25 ERA 1.00 WHIP
R.A. Dickey NYM:  5 GS 5 QS 4-0 record 34 inn. 33 K 1.83 ERA .9612 WHIP
James McDonald PIT: 5 GS 4-0 record 35 inn. 39 K 1.543 ERA .81 WHIP

Scrubs:
Mike Minor ATL : 5 GS 0-2 record 25 inn. 21 K 9.947 ERA 1.8947 WHIP
Matt Garza CHC : 4 GS 0-2 record 19 inn. 13 K  6.86 ERA 1.6271 WHIP
Tim Lincecum SF : 6 GS 0-4 record  33 inn. 35 K 5.881 ERA 1.5743 WHIP

Closers

Stars:
Chris Perez CLE : 11 INN 13 K  10 Saves 1.588 ERA .7941 WHIP
Santiago Casilla SF: 14 INN 12 K 10 S 1.256 ERA .9767 WHIP

Scrubs:
Brandon League SEA: 8 INN 6 K 2 saves 2 Blown Saves  7 BB 6.48 ERA 2.04 WHIP
Henry Rodriguez WAS : 11 INN 11 K 4 S 2 BS 7.364 ERA 1.454 WHIP

Casting A Line May 28-June 3

Here's a look at largely unowned players who are currently streaking in the right direction.

Ernesto Frieri  Angels RP

Hardly anyone noticed when the Angels traded light hitting infield prospect Alex Amarista to the Padres, but the addition of Frieri has solidified the back end of the streaking Halos bullpen. Frieri has already notched 2 saves in the past week and allows manager Mike Scoscia the flexibility of using left Scott Downs more in 7th and 8th inning role his had his entire career. In 10 appearances with the Angels, Frieri has already punched out 22 batters and has notched 2+ K's in 8 of those 10 apperances. Downs may still get a few more saves in the short term but Frieri is the obvious choice long term with his power arm and swing and miss stuff (16.62 K/9 in  2012).

Dayan Viciedo White Sox OF

There's currenty not hotter hitter in baseball than Viciedo. After a dismal April which seen the White Sox right fielder hit .206 with 4 RBI, Viciedo has come out in May and posted a .313/.345/.588 slash line. Even hotter, over the past 14 days he's hitting .387 with 7 HR 18 RBI and 11 runs scored.

Alex Rios White Sox OF

Unlike his OF partner Viciedo, Rios actually got off to a solid start this season hitting .311 in April. After a slow start to May, Rios has come back in the past week to hit .381 with 3 HR and 9 RBI. Always a good mix of spped and 18-20 HR power he appears to be on track to having his good every other season type of years.

Jeff Francoeur Royals OF

Seemingly right around the same time the Royals promoted slugging OF prospect Wil Meyers to AAA, the struggling all or nothing slugger seemed to take that as a hint to jump start his season.  Hitting .280 in May, Frenchy has hit .370  with 4 HR 7 RBI over his past 12 games while throwing in a stolen base. Ride the wave as long as Francoeur is playing motivated but be prepared to cut bait once the inevitable coldspell returns.

Homer Baily Reds SP

It seems every year fantasy owners have waiting for the former 7th overall pick of the 2004 draft to make the next step and become fantasy relevent. So far this season Bailey has been nothing but a solid option tallying 7 Quality starts out of his 9 starts. After posting a subpar strikeout rate to begin the season, Bailey has 16 K's over his past 19 innings (2 starts vs ATL 1 vs NYY) while only walking 4 batters and allowing only 6 ER.  Both of his next 2 scheduled starts come versus the Pirates, the worst offense in the MLB. And with the Reds bats hot right now it should be a good time for give Bailey a turn or two over the next couple of weeks.

On Twitter @LordReebs

Talking Early Football and Too Early Cam Newton

The problem with fantasy sports is you’re always forced to pay for the past come draft time. Players are selected and projections are based on prior statistical achievements. This will always be the case as it’s the only way to shape your hypothesis going into your draft. Unfortunately there is no crystal ball that stops us from making the mistake of thinking the past is the future.

There was no bigger example of this than last fantasy football season when people were declaring Mike Vick worthy of a first round selection based on his 2010 ridiculous statistical campaign after he relieved the incumbent Kevin Kolb. Those people of course were ultimately let down by receiving the 12^th ranked QB on average amongst fantasy gunslingers.  

Coming into this season there is a new 2010 Mike Vick and that player is Cam Newton.  I like what Newton brings to the table fantasy wise but I don’t like the price it costs to obtain his services . Already in early mocks per Fantasy Football Toolbox, Newton is being selected as the 2^nd overall QB after Aaron Rodgers. Much like Vick coming into last season I’m here to explain to you why you can let another owner reach that highly for him.  

Newton 2011:  16 games:  4051 pass yds. 21 TD, 17 INT/ 706 Rush yds. 14 TD (25.3 fantasy pts. /week)

Vick 2010: 13 games: 3018 pass yards, 21 TD 6 INT / 676 Rush yds. 9 TD (27.3 fantasy pts. /week)

Obviously the reason both QB’s were able to vault themselves into fantasy stardom was their dual threat ability as a runner and as a passer. Newton rushed for 14 TD’s (6 of which were 1 yd. scores and 5 came from further than 10 yards out) while in ’10 Vick set a career high with his 9 rushing TD’s.  Touchdowns are nearly unpredictable and predicting another 12 plus TD’s from a QB would be unprecedented. Just look at Vick’scareer TD spikes throughout his 9 year career.  The bonus these guys proved with their legs is why they are so valuable but remember that you’re still drafting a quarterback and you need to surround your expectations with what a player can do passing and take everything else as a bonus.  This is where they separate from each other and outside of the top 4 QB’s.

Cam Newton began his ROY season on fire passing for 370+ yards in three of his first four career starts, including beginning the season with back to back 400+ yard games. However he never eclipsed 300 yards in any other start past week 4 and passed for 224 yards or fewer in 8 of the other 13 weeks, including throwing for less than 171 yards in 4 of those 8.  31% of Newton’s passing yards came in those three games.  In 2010 Vick only threw for less than 200 yards in one game and that was week 1 when he didn’t start the game and passed for 250 + yards in 10 of his 12 starts.

Strip away the entire bonus rushing statistics both give you and Newton averaged 16 fantasy pts per week throwing while 2010 Vick averaged 18 pts weekly.  In perspective ,Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick (both fantasy backups) averaged 16 pts weekly in 2011 with only passing stats counted. Tim Tebow averaged 11 and Vick last season averaged 16.  The leaders at the position in points per week only passing in 2011 were Drew Brees (30) Aaron Rodgers (28) Tom Brady (26) and Matthew Stafford (26). 

That means a guy like Newton or Vick needs to give you roughly double digit points weekly rushing the football.  Cam had 5 or fewer rushing pts in 8 of his games last season. Vick only reached double digit rushing pts in 6 of his 13 games in 2010 and failed to record any such games in 2011.

In closing, both are definite fantasy starters and on any given week one of these guys can carry you to a fantasy victory nearly single handedly, but you can  bolster your skill positions up and take a guy like Tony Romo later.  You aren’t going to get the week to week consistency from them that you will from other QB’s who have regularly found themselves amongst the yearly points leaders.

On Twitter @Lordreebs

Casting A Line

Week 8 seen several more players hit the DL with owners losing speedster Emilio Bonifacio (thumb), Lance Berkman (knee) for the second time and masher Allen Craig (hamstring). Here's a look ahead as possible replacements for fantasy owners week 9.

Alfonso Soriano CHI OF

Always a streaky hitter and now is a good time to ride the good version of Soriano. Through 15 May games the Cubs left fielder has hit .310 (18/58) with 3 HR and 11 RBI.

Week 9: 6 games @HOU @PIT

Elliot Johnson TB 2B, SS

Another Swiss army knife type of player. Joe Maddon has already played Johnson at 2B, SS, 3B and OF. He has produced too, going 14/32 (.438) with 1 HR 5 RBI and 3 steals in 5 attempts over his past 10 games.

Week 9: 6 games VS TOR @ BOS

Rajai Davis TOR OF

Since the demotion of Adam Lind, the former 50 steal Davis has drawn 3 starts for Toronto.He's never had more than 5 HR in a season so don't look for many more 2 HR games like the one he had Friday vs the Mets. But Bonifacio owners may look for him a SB replacement. He's already stolen 3 bases the past week and has posted 20 + SB the past 5 seasons.

Week 9: 6 games vs TB @ TEX

Mitch Moreland TEX 1B/OF

Look for a good week to get Moreland into your lineups this week. The Rangers face 6 right handed pitchers this week and Moreland generally draws starts in those games. For the season he has 5 HR 14 RBI and a .303 average vs right handed pitching.

Week 9 : 6 games @ SEA vs TOR

Erick Aybar ANA SS

Likely most owners ditched Aybar after hitting .221 with only runs scored through his first 38 games played. But in the past week Aybar is 7/21 with 2 stolen bases. Coming off a 30 steal season those looking for steals may want to give the Angels SS a look this week.

Week 9: 6 games @OAK @SEA

On Twitter @LordReebs