Sunday, May 27, 2012

Casting A Line May 28-June 3

Here's a look at largely unowned players who are currently streaking in the right direction.

Ernesto Frieri  Angels RP

Hardly anyone noticed when the Angels traded light hitting infield prospect Alex Amarista to the Padres, but the addition of Frieri has solidified the back end of the streaking Halos bullpen. Frieri has already notched 2 saves in the past week and allows manager Mike Scoscia the flexibility of using left Scott Downs more in 7th and 8th inning role his had his entire career. In 10 appearances with the Angels, Frieri has already punched out 22 batters and has notched 2+ K's in 8 of those 10 apperances. Downs may still get a few more saves in the short term but Frieri is the obvious choice long term with his power arm and swing and miss stuff (16.62 K/9 in  2012).

Dayan Viciedo White Sox OF

There's currenty not hotter hitter in baseball than Viciedo. After a dismal April which seen the White Sox right fielder hit .206 with 4 RBI, Viciedo has come out in May and posted a .313/.345/.588 slash line. Even hotter, over the past 14 days he's hitting .387 with 7 HR 18 RBI and 11 runs scored.

Alex Rios White Sox OF

Unlike his OF partner Viciedo, Rios actually got off to a solid start this season hitting .311 in April. After a slow start to May, Rios has come back in the past week to hit .381 with 3 HR and 9 RBI. Always a good mix of spped and 18-20 HR power he appears to be on track to having his good every other season type of years.

Jeff Francoeur Royals OF

Seemingly right around the same time the Royals promoted slugging OF prospect Wil Meyers to AAA, the struggling all or nothing slugger seemed to take that as a hint to jump start his season.  Hitting .280 in May, Frenchy has hit .370  with 4 HR 7 RBI over his past 12 games while throwing in a stolen base. Ride the wave as long as Francoeur is playing motivated but be prepared to cut bait once the inevitable coldspell returns.

Homer Baily Reds SP

It seems every year fantasy owners have waiting for the former 7th overall pick of the 2004 draft to make the next step and become fantasy relevent. So far this season Bailey has been nothing but a solid option tallying 7 Quality starts out of his 9 starts. After posting a subpar strikeout rate to begin the season, Bailey has 16 K's over his past 19 innings (2 starts vs ATL 1 vs NYY) while only walking 4 batters and allowing only 6 ER.  Both of his next 2 scheduled starts come versus the Pirates, the worst offense in the MLB. And with the Reds bats hot right now it should be a good time for give Bailey a turn or two over the next couple of weeks.


On Twitter @LordReebs

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Talking Early Football and Too Early Cam Newton


The problem with fantasy sports is you’re always forced to pay for the past come draft time. Players are selected and projections are based on prior statistical achievements. This will always be the case as it’s the only way to shape your hypothesis going into your draft. Unfortunately there is no crystal ball that stops us from making the mistake of thinking the past is the future.
There was no bigger example of this than last fantasy football season when people were declaring Mike Vick worthy of a first round selection based on his 2010 ridiculous statistical campaign after he relieved the incumbent Kevin Kolb. Those people of course were ultimately let down by receiving the 12th ranked QB on average amongst fantasy gunslingers.  

Coming into this season there is a new 2010 Mike Vick and that player is Cam Newton.  I like what Newton brings to the table fantasy wise but I don’t like the price it costs to obtain his services . Already in early mocks per Fantasy Football Toolbox, Newton is being selected as the 2nd overall QB after Aaron Rodgers. Much like Vick coming into last season I’m here to explain to you why you can let another owner reach that highly for him.  

Newton 2011:  16 games:  4051 pass yds. 21 TD, 17 INT/ 706 Rush yds. 14 TD (25.3 fantasy pts. /week)

Vick 2010: 13 games: 3018 pass yards, 21 TD 6 INT / 676 Rush yds. 9 TD (27.3 fantasy pts. /week)
Obviously the reason both QB’s were able to vault themselves into fantasy stardom was their dual threat ability as a runner and as a passer. Newton rushed for 14 TD’s (6 of which were 1 yd. scores and 5 came from further than 10 yards out) while in ’10 Vick set a career high with his 9 rushing TD’s.  Touchdowns are nearly unpredictable and predicting another 12 plus TD’s from a QB would be unprecedented. Just look at Vick’scareer TD spikes throughout his 9 year career.  The bonus these guys proved with their legs is why they are so valuable but remember that you’re still drafting a quarterback and you need to surround your expectations with what a player can do passing and take everything else as a bonus.  This is where they separate from each other and outside of the top 4 QB’s.

Cam Newton began his ROY season on fire passing for 370+ yards in three of his first four career starts, including beginning the season with back to back 400+ yard games. However he never eclipsed 300 yards in any other start past week 4 and passed for 224 yards or fewer in 8 of the other 13 weeks, including throwing for less than 171 yards in 4 of those 8.  31% of Newton’s passing yards came in those three games.  In 2010 Vick only threw for less than 200 yards in one game and that was week 1 when he didn’t start the game and passed for 250 + yards in 10 of his 12 starts.

Strip away the entire bonus rushing statistics both give you and Newton averaged 16 fantasy pts per week throwing while 2010 Vick averaged 18 pts weekly.  In perspective ,Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick (both fantasy backups) averaged 16 pts weekly in 2011 with only passing stats counted. Tim Tebow averaged 11 and Vick last season averaged 16.  The leaders at the position in points per week only passing in 2011 were Drew Brees (30) Aaron Rodgers (28) Tom Brady (26) and Matthew Stafford (26). 

That means a guy like Newton or Vick needs to give you roughly double digit points weekly rushing the football.  Cam had 5 or fewer rushing pts in 8 of his games last season. Vick only reached double digit rushing pts in 6 of his 13 games in 2010 and failed to record any such games in 2011.


In closing, both are definite fantasy starters and on any given week one of these guys can carry you to a fantasy victory nearly single handedly, but you can  bolster your skill positions up and take a guy like Tony Romo later.  You aren’t going to get the week to week consistency from them that you will from other QB’s who have regularly found themselves amongst the yearly points leaders.


On Twitter @Lordreebs

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Casting A Line




Week 8 seen several more players hit the DL with owners losing speedster Emilio Bonifacio (thumb), Lance Berkman (knee) for the second time and masher Allen Craig (hamstring). Here's a look ahead as possible replacements for fantasy owners week 9.




Alfonso Soriano CHI OF

Always a streaky hitter and now is a good time to ride the good version of Soriano. Through 15 May games the Cubs left fielder has hit .310 (18/58) with 3 HR and 11 RBI.

Week 9: 6 games @HOU @PIT

Elliot Johnson TB 2B, SS

Another Swiss army knife type of player. Joe Maddon has already played Johnson at 2B, SS, 3B and OF. He has produced too, going 14/32 (.438) with 1 HR 5 RBI and 3 steals in 5 attempts over his past 10 games.

Week 9: 6 games VS TOR @ BOS

Rajai Davis TOR OF

Since the demotion of Adam Lind, the former 50 steal Davis has drawn 3 starts for Toronto.He's never had more than 5 HR in a season so don't look for many more 2 HR games like the one he had Friday vs the Mets. But Bonifacio owners may look for him a SB replacement. He's already stolen 3 bases the past week and has posted 20 + SB the past 5 seasons.

Week 9: 6 games vs TB @ TEX

Mitch Moreland TEX 1B/OF

Look for a good week to get Moreland into your lineups this week. The Rangers face 6 right handed pitchers this week and Moreland generally draws starts in those games. For the season he has 5 HR 14 RBI and a .303 average vs right handed pitching.

Week 9 : 6 games @ SEA vs TOR

Erick Aybar ANA SS

Likely most owners ditched Aybar after hitting .221 with only runs scored through his first 38 games played. But in the past week Aybar is 7/21 with 2 stolen bases. Coming off a 30 steal season those looking for steals may want to give the Angels SS a look this week.

Week 9: 6 games @OAK @SEA


On Twitter @LordReebs

Friday, May 18, 2012

Welcome to the Red Carpet: Adam Jones


   Every year an actor or actress steps from supporting role to becoming the lead. Fantasy sports are no different. We calling it making the leap, that moment when everything comes together for a player we knew all along had the potential to step in the spotlight.

 
   Through today that player is Adam Jones. The going on 27 year old outfielder is the engine that is driving a surprising Baltimore offense that is 6th in MLB in runs scored and has more Home Runs than any other team in baseball. The former centerpiece of the Erik Bedard trade, Jones made his debut at only age 22 with Seattle and has already player 4 full seasons in the big leagues, improving each season in all of them. Most fantasy circles already pinpoint age 27 as the year a hitter peaks. Jones is currently the second ranked OF in the majority of fantasy leagues with his .295/.345/.603 line with 13 HR and 31 Runs scored.

  There were signs that pointed towards this coming in. For his entire career the biggest obstacle Jones has had to overcome is his plate discipline. He's only walked more than 30 times in a season once while striking out over 100 times in all but one. But over the past 2 seasons coming in he has increased his walk rate and lowered his K rate. Pair that with the fact he has never had a giant spike in his BABIP numbers (career high .329 /low .304) and you have a recipe for success.

 The greatest part of this success is the fact that when he reaches base he now has freedom to run. Accounting for 6 of the 11 total SB (lowest in MLB) for Baltimore, he’s already attempted 9 thefts. Coming into the season his career high number of stolen base attempts was 16 last year.  A 30-20 season seems totally in reach.

  He doesn't have the 50 HR power he's currently on pace for and doubling his career slugging marks would be a Bautista like jump. His current HR/FB rate is 26% and his career high coming in was 17% back in '09 and last season it was at 16.7% when he hit 25 long balls. So even with that rate dropping down towards those two numbers your still looking at a 30 HR guy.

 The only bugaboo about Jones game other than the walk rate is he shockingly struggles vs left handed pitching. A career .249 hitter vs lefties, he is only mustering a weak .189/.231/.432 line off southpaws thus far. Only 17 of his 88 career HR have come off lefties as well. Something to keep tabs on going forward but it hasn’t hurt his overall line too much up until this point.



2012 Final line Prediction:  .284 AVG  110 R 33 HR  98 RBI 21 SB

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Early Season Sink or Swim


 Does the captain always have to go down with his ship? We're seven weeks into the fantasy baseball season and players that we're drafted to be your teams’ anchors are pulling the rest of your team into the depths of fantasy peril. By now you're already frustrated with these players and if you haven't already cut bait on these guys in trades you have to wonder when is the right time to jump ship or just stay the course.


Albert Pujols

By now every publication has beat down the dreadful start of the season the Angels new $240 million dollar man has put together so far. It was thought that the now 32 year old Pujols started slow when he hit .267 with 9 HR 31 RBI through May last season but owners and Mickey Hatcher would’ve loved to have that start now. Things won't be that severely poor going forward (he's still not Daric Barton)but there were several signs that pointed to Pujols not performing up to the top 3 pick he was likely selected with.

Last season Pujols posted the worst ground ball percentage (44.7%) of his career while the amount of his fly balls (38.3%) decreased from (44.5%) in 2010. This is a trend that has continued as evidence by his 3 hit (all infield singles) game on Tuesday night, his best fantasy night of the 2012 campaign until his 3 run HR last night. So far he has posted a 43% GB rate while his fly balls are down all the way to 33.6%. Couple that with already decreasing slugging % and ISO power numbers from the past two seasons and you are looking at a power hitter that isn't going to come close to the numbers you thought you were getting.

Another huge problem for Pujols is he has begun to make himself an easier out. He currently has walked only 7 times in 153 plate appearances this season. Last season he walked only 61 times in 651 PA (4.8% BB rate) down from the 103 walks he had in 2010. Before last season his career low for walks was 69 and it was in his rookie season. The cause of this is his deterioted plate discipline. This season he is swinging at 38.6% of pitches outside of the strike zone and last season he was at 31.8%. In perspective his career percentage for chasing pitches is 21.9%.

Now Pujols won't be as horrible going forward. This isn't a repeat case of 2011 Carl Crawford or Adam Dunn. Career .325 hitters just don't forget how to hit totally. Even of the past week he's hitting .292 with 1 HR 8 RBI.
He won't hit for this poor of an average the rest of the way and some of his fly balls will begin to leave the yard. But he would have to have a huge rest of the season even for his standards to come close to his run, HR, and RBI averages.

2012 Final Line:  .274 AVG 75 R 27 HR  85 RBI 5 SB


Jose Bautista

In 2010, the now 32 year old Joey Bats changed his hitting approach and in turn changed his entire career. This season owners are down on his start even after his 3 home run weekend at Target Field. So far Bautista has just run into terrible luck. All of Bautista's underlying stats are nearly identical to his past 2 seasons. His FB%, LD %, GB %, and K rate are all where they were last season except in 2011 he posted a .309 average on balls in play (BABIP). That number was flukier than his career norm (.271) but this season he has only produced a putrid .171 average on balls in play. Even if he meets somewhere near his .233 BABIP in '10 you can expect a nice turnaround in run producing categories.

2012 Final Line .243 AVG 95 R 41 HR 105 RBI 8 SB

Tim Lincecum

Lincecum wasn't drafted as a top 3 overall pitcher but most of his owners drafted him to be their number one starting pitcher. "The Freak" has done nothing of the sort so far with a 5.77 ERA and 1.35 WHIP thus far. What’s worse is he has been unable to go deep in games pitching into the 7th inning just twice in 8 starts. Already backed by a below average offense and poor defense,  he has been a bit unlucky thus far as hitters have a .346 BABIP against him and he's only stranded 60.4% of base runners but hitters are also hitting him well. 24.8% of balls hit off of Lincecum have been line drives and he's walking 4.53 guys per 9 innings. His walk rate has been increasing for 4 straight seasons while his K/9 has dropped slightly the past 2. Not all bad though, he has 48 K's in 43 innings. Odds are you are not going to get any great value for him but if you can move him to an owner who loves those strikeouts and doesn’t mind what could continue to come along with them go ahead and pull the trigger. He's only had ERA higher than 3.00 once since his rookie season but that is long out the window as a possibility at this point.

2012 Final Line  205 INN 13 W 12 L   4.25 ERA   1.35 WHIP 207 K

Adrian Gonzalez

Since the All Star break last season Gonzalez has just 12 home runs in his last 432 at bats covering 106 games (with 5 of those HR coming in a 3 game series in Texas last August). He's admitted that last season he played with an injured right shoulder  but claims he's as healthy as ever. Last season he started slowly as well , hitting 1 HR in April before ripping through May ( 9HR 31 RBI ) but there are no signs of that so far this season (0 HR 5 RBI this May). Fenway may be playing a part as he only hit 10 of his 27 HR last year at home while seeing his doubles increase from 33 to 45  but oddly enough he even hit more doubles on the road as well (only 19 of the 45 came at Fenway).  Gonzalez still is really useful as he is on pace for 90 runs and 90 runs batted in while still posting a nice average just don’t anticipate the 30-40 HR power to return.
                  

2012 Final Line   .296 AVG   93 R    23 HR   108 RBI 1 SB

Got a fantasy question? Email me at hribarrich@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter @LordReebs