Every
year an actor or actress steps from supporting role to becoming the lead.
Fantasy sports are no different. We calling it making the leap, that moment
when everything comes together for a player we knew all along had the potential
to step in the spotlight.
Through
today that player is Adam Jones. The going on 27 year old outfielder is the
engine that is driving a surprising Baltimore offense that is 6th in MLB in
runs scored and has more Home Runs than any other team in baseball. The former centerpiece
of the Erik Bedard trade, Jones made his debut at only age 22 with Seattle and
has already player 4 full seasons in the big leagues, improving each season in
all of them. Most fantasy circles already pinpoint age 27 as the year a hitter
peaks. Jones is currently the second ranked OF in the majority of fantasy
leagues with his .295/.345/.603 line with 13 HR and 31 Runs scored.
There
were signs that pointed towards this coming in. For his entire career the
biggest obstacle Jones has had to overcome is his plate discipline. He's only
walked more than 30 times in a season once while striking out over 100 times in
all but one. But over the past 2 seasons coming in he has increased his walk
rate and lowered his K rate. Pair that with the fact he has never had a giant
spike in his BABIP numbers (career high .329 /low .304) and you have a recipe
for success.
The
greatest part of this success is the fact that when he reaches base he now has freedom
to run. Accounting for 6 of the 11 total SB (lowest in MLB) for Baltimore, he’s
already attempted 9 thefts. Coming into the season his career high number of
stolen base attempts was 16 last year. A
30-20 season seems totally in reach.
He
doesn't have the 50 HR power he's currently on pace for and doubling his career
slugging marks would be a Bautista like jump. His current HR/FB rate is 26% and
his career high coming in was 17% back in '09 and last season it was at 16.7%
when he hit 25 long balls. So even with that rate dropping down towards those
two numbers your still looking at a 30 HR guy.
The
only bugaboo about Jones game other than the walk rate is he shockingly
struggles vs left handed pitching. A career .249 hitter vs lefties, he is only
mustering a weak .189/.231/.432 line off southpaws thus far. Only 17 of his 88
career HR have come off lefties as well. Something to keep tabs on going
forward but it hasn’t hurt his overall line too much up until this point.
2012
Final line Prediction: .284 AVG 110 R 33 HR
98 RBI 21 SB
Question, My team is in a national league only league and we are in last place again, as we were in basketball this year, should we start chucking our players for bring backers now or wait.....
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