Talking Early Football and Too Early Cam Newton

The problem with fantasy sports is you’re always forced to pay for the past come draft time. Players are selected and projections are based on prior statistical achievements. This will always be the case as it’s the only way to shape your hypothesis going into your draft. Unfortunately there is no crystal ball that stops us from making the mistake of thinking the past is the future.

There was no bigger example of this than last fantasy football season when people were declaring Mike Vick worthy of a first round selection based on his 2010 ridiculous statistical campaign after he relieved the incumbent Kevin Kolb. Those people of course were ultimately let down by receiving the 12^th ranked QB on average amongst fantasy gunslingers.  

Coming into this season there is a new 2010 Mike Vick and that player is Cam Newton.  I like what Newton brings to the table fantasy wise but I don’t like the price it costs to obtain his services . Already in early mocks per Fantasy Football Toolbox, Newton is being selected as the 2^nd overall QB after Aaron Rodgers. Much like Vick coming into last season I’m here to explain to you why you can let another owner reach that highly for him.  

Newton 2011:  16 games:  4051 pass yds. 21 TD, 17 INT/ 706 Rush yds. 14 TD (25.3 fantasy pts. /week)

Vick 2010: 13 games: 3018 pass yards, 21 TD 6 INT / 676 Rush yds. 9 TD (27.3 fantasy pts. /week)

Obviously the reason both QB’s were able to vault themselves into fantasy stardom was their dual threat ability as a runner and as a passer. Newton rushed for 14 TD’s (6 of which were 1 yd. scores and 5 came from further than 10 yards out) while in ’10 Vick set a career high with his 9 rushing TD’s.  Touchdowns are nearly unpredictable and predicting another 12 plus TD’s from a QB would be unprecedented. Just look at Vick’scareer TD spikes throughout his 9 year career.  The bonus these guys proved with their legs is why they are so valuable but remember that you’re still drafting a quarterback and you need to surround your expectations with what a player can do passing and take everything else as a bonus.  This is where they separate from each other and outside of the top 4 QB’s.

Cam Newton began his ROY season on fire passing for 370+ yards in three of his first four career starts, including beginning the season with back to back 400+ yard games. However he never eclipsed 300 yards in any other start past week 4 and passed for 224 yards or fewer in 8 of the other 13 weeks, including throwing for less than 171 yards in 4 of those 8.  31% of Newton’s passing yards came in those three games.  In 2010 Vick only threw for less than 200 yards in one game and that was week 1 when he didn’t start the game and passed for 250 + yards in 10 of his 12 starts.

Strip away the entire bonus rushing statistics both give you and Newton averaged 16 fantasy pts per week throwing while 2010 Vick averaged 18 pts weekly.  In perspective ,Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick (both fantasy backups) averaged 16 pts weekly in 2011 with only passing stats counted. Tim Tebow averaged 11 and Vick last season averaged 16.  The leaders at the position in points per week only passing in 2011 were Drew Brees (30) Aaron Rodgers (28) Tom Brady (26) and Matthew Stafford (26). 

That means a guy like Newton or Vick needs to give you roughly double digit points weekly rushing the football.  Cam had 5 or fewer rushing pts in 8 of his games last season. Vick only reached double digit rushing pts in 6 of his 13 games in 2010 and failed to record any such games in 2011.

In closing, both are definite fantasy starters and on any given week one of these guys can carry you to a fantasy victory nearly single handedly, but you can  bolster your skill positions up and take a guy like Tony Romo later.  You aren’t going to get the week to week consistency from them that you will from other QB’s who have regularly found themselves amongst the yearly points leaders.

On Twitter @Lordreebs