The 2011 season had 10 QB's throw for 4,000 + yards (3 over 5K, Eli Manning just missing with 4,900) as opposed to 5 who threw for that much yardage in 2010. Three QB passed for 40 or more touchdowns while Tom Brady threw for 39, the first 40 TD seasons since 2007 when Brady threw 50 scores.
2012 could very well be the deepest quarterback season fantasy owners have seen in some time. Owners in regular draft formats not using a top 3 pick on one of the ultra elites will find the options left in the mid rounds far more useful than in years past.
**These early rankings are based on current value. Meaning guys in position battles that are not clear starters yet will have their ranking hurt as of now. Of course this list will be adjusted as things get closer to the season and jobs are won.**
1. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Bye: 10 : MVP of the league coming off career highs in yards (4643) TD's (45) and a low INT (6). Also adding 16 Rush TD's over the past 4 seasons. No dicount double check with the numbers you'll get from fantasy's best QB.
2. Drew Brees - New Orleans Bye 6 : Nobody expects Brees not to sign a new deal eventually. Once he does, owners can expect more of the same from last season where he set a new NFL record in passing yards (5,476) while tacking on a league leading 46 passing TD's. His 4th straight season of 30+ TD's passing.
3. Tom Brady - New England Bye 9 : Ho hum. Brady wouldv'e broken the passing yardage record if it weren't for Brees. His 5,235 yards and 39 TD's were his best season since 2007 when he set the record TD mark. Only 2 weeks in 2011 with fewer than 20+ fantasy points.
4. Matthew Stafford - Detroit Bye 5 : The third member of the 2011 5K passing club (5,038) Stafford connected for 41 TD while throwing for 3 + TD in 7 games. Accompanied by the best fantasy WR in the game and a running game that appears to have improved minimally expect another monster season from him.
5. Cam Newton - Carolina Bye 6 : I've already broken down the Newton first or second round scenario. The rookie sensation shattered the rookie passing yardage record with his 4,051 yards while adding 21 passing TD's and also adding 14 rushing TD's. I expect his rush TD's to drop some but also improve on his 17 INT this season.Some leagues will see him taken as early as the no. 2 QB after Rodgers. Love the production, just not the cost to get him.
6. Matt Ryan - Atlanta Bye 7 : Another guy I will have ranked higher than most. Ryan will be this years Matt Stafford. You won't get the 5,000 yards and 40 TD but what I mean by that is a guy that is going to shatter where he will be taken in your draft. Atlanta has a new pass first offense for a QB that has been top 10 the past 2 seasons and Atlanta has the easiest pass schedule of 2012. See more here.
7. Michael Vick - Philadelphia Bye 7: The first four QB are no brainers. Now let's stir the pot a bit. Vick gets the nod for me over Cam Newton due to the fact he already is a better passer than Newton, the skill position players around him are substantially better than in Carolina and he's on equal footing with rushing yardage. Injury risk alert as he hasn't played a full 16 games since 2006.
8. Eli Manning - New York Giants Bye 11 : Eli's 4,933 yards and 29 TD were the third consecutive season he's ammased 4,000 + yards with 27+ TD. The run game still isn't elite and WR Hakeem Nicks should return to start the season.
9. Tony Romo - Dallas Bye 5 : The Cowboys' real life punching bag has done nothing but provide consistently great numbers for fantasy owners. Romo has eclipsed 3,400 yards and 25 + TD in each of his past 4 full seasons (6 games in 2010) and has thrown for more than 30 TD in 2 of those seasons.
10. Philip Rivers - San Diego Bye 7: Rivers threw for 4624 yards and 27 TD's in what many percieve as a down season. It was the 4th straight season he passed for 4,000 yards and 25 TD. He also threw a career high 20 INT but we've seen elite QB throw a bunch INT (Brees - 2010 22 INT) and bounce back.
11. Peyton Manning - Denver Bye 7 : Hard to believe a player whose career lows are 3,700 yards and 26 TD will likely be drafted as a backup in 10 team leagues. 4 neck surgeries and lost season at age 36 will do that. Denver has the pieces in place for Manning to be successful and he will be the ultimate risk/reward pick for owners who select him to be their starter.
12. Matt Schaub - Houston Bye 8 : Schaub's 2010 ended after 10 games with a Lisfranc injury to his right foot. He played 6 of those 10 games without Andre Johnson as well(3/6 of those games 20+ pts). But he leads an offense that runs the ball better than anyone in the league and will have a very soft schedule playing in the AFC South. Coming off of back to back 4,000 yard seasons before 2011 owners looking for a late bargain at QB could find him very useful.
13. Jay Cutler - Chicago Bye 6 : Reunited with ex-Broncos coach Jeremy Bates as well as former Bronco teammate Brandon Marshall paired with the retiring of Mike Martz could mean a return to the 4500+ yard thrower Cutler was in 2008. Add the fact that both of the Chicago RB are great in the passing game. 5 of his 10 games in 2011 scored 20+ fantasy points.
14. Carson Palmer - Oakland Bye 5 : After sitting out the first 6 weeks of the season Palmer was rushed right into playing time in hopes of keeping Oaklands playoff hopes alive. With limited practice and rush he totaled 20 + fantasy points in 5 of his starts. A full off season and some interesting weapons at his disposal Palmer will have a shot to pass for 3,500 yads and 25 TD. Oakland has great bye week matchups for Rodgers, Brady, Vick and Ryan owners.
15. Robert Griffin III- Washington Bye 10 : Likely will be selected much higher than he should be by an owner looking to catch the Cam Newton lightning in a bottle. Griffin passed for over 10,000 yards and 77 TD's in his final 2 college seasons while only throwing 17 INT. The opportunity will be there for him and he has a better WR corp and defense than Newton had to start off with. A 20 TD season with 500 rush yards could be achievable.
16. Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Bye 4 : Big Ben has proven to be a great real life quarterback but only a marginal fantasy option. Expected to throw more last season, Roethlisberger threw for 4,000 yards for the second time in his career but only totaled 21 TD while throwing 14 INT. He's only topped 25 + TD twice in his career and Pittsburgh has the 31st worst ranked passing schedule in 2012.
17. Josh Freeman - Tampa Bay Bye 5 : After a promising second season where he threw for 3451 yards and 25 TD and only 6 INT, Freeman and the Bucs dissapointed mightily in 2011. He had only two 300 yard passing games in 2011 and not one game did he pass for more than 2 TD's. Tampa has given him new weapons in Vincent Jackson and versatile RB Doug Martin from Boise St. to give him more options in the passing game while signing Gaurd Carl Nicks to the Oline. If he can meet in the middle of his '10 and '11 seasons Freeman can be a value to owners once again.
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick - Buffalo Bye 8 : Fitzpatrick caught owners off guard last season starting with 3 straight games of 22+ points to open the season as well as a 9/3 TD/INT clip. After week 3 Fitzpatrick reverted back to a QB who forced too many throws into coverage (15 TD 20 INT final 13 games). He also threw 1 TD or 0 TD in 8 games in 2011.
19. Joe Flacco - Balitmore Bye 8 : Owners keep waiting on the breakout season from Flacco into a fantasy star and it simply is never going to happen. He is what he is and thats a 3,500 20 TD passer. Flacco threw for 7 TD in his first three games last season followed by 13 over the final 13 games.
20. Matt Cassell - Kansas City Bye 7 : Last season, owners were looking for Cassell to build off the 27 TD season he had in 2010. Instead he threw only 10 TD in 9 games while averaging a lowly 191 yards per contest. Kansas City does have offensive plamakers in Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Peyton Hills and James Baldwin but Cassell has never averaged 7 yards per attempt in his 3 seasons in KC.
21. Matt Flynn - Seattle Bye 11: Believe what you want about the supposed comepetition between Flynn and Tavaris Jackson but the Seahawks didn't give Flynn $10 million guaranteed to be the backup. He gave everyone a glimpse of his ability throwing for 480 yards and 6 TD in the regular season finale vs Detroit but that was with the Packers offense.
23. Sam Bradford - St. Louis Bye 9 : Bradford could be a nice value as a post hype sleeper this season. After a successful rookie season Bradford dealt with injuries all last season, only playing in 10 games while throwing only 6 TD. His completion percentage dropped way off (60% 2010 53% 2011) as a result of the rotation of inexperienced WR the Rams rotated as well. With security blanket Danny Amendola coming back expect Bradford to be a solid fantasy backup as the Rams have a very matchup freiendly schedule.
24. Mark Sanchez - New York Jets Bye 9 : Before trading for Tim Tebow the Jets gave Sanchez a new 3 yr - $40 million contract extension. Sanchez was usuable for fantasy owners last season as he posted 26 TDs as well as 6 rushing TD's. He scored 20 + points for owners in 7 weeks but also scored 13 or fewer in 4 weeks.
25. Alex Smith - San Francisco Bye 9 : The former 2005 #1 draft pick enjoyed his best season as pro last year throwing for 3,000 yards for the first time in his career. His 5 INT were also a league low but they came with only 17 TD. Smith had zero 300 yard games and 11 games with 1 or fewer TD. The additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham will help but the 49ers are run first club still.
26. Andrew Luck - Indianapolis Bye 4 : The Colts lost Peyton Manning and hope they replaced him with another 15 year starting QB. By now you know luck has all the ability and tools but to the fantasy circle he inherits one of leagues worst offenses. The Colts struggled last season and will now be without Pierre Garcon, Jacob Taame and Dallas Clark while only bringing aging WR Reggie Wayne back. The addition of draft choice and college teammate Colby Fleener helps only so much.
27. Matt Hasselbeck - Tennessee Bye 11: 3500 yards and 18 TD in 2011. Locker looming but Hasselbeck gives them best chance for playoff run in a weak divison.
28. Christian Ponder Minnesota Bye 11: 13 INT in 11 games as a rookie. Possibly no Peterson to begin the season with Harvin his only option.
29. Brandon Weeden Cleveland Bye 10 : Will be 29 in October. Has a few playmakers in Richardson, Cribbs and Little to give some value.
30. John Skelton Arizona Bye 10: 270 + yards the final 4 games of 2011. 14 INT in 8 games played. 2+ attempts more per game to Fitzgerald than Kolb
31. Ryan Tannehill - Miami Bye 7: Big arm, athletic but may be the best WR on his own team. Miami would be wise to see what happened to #32 on this list when forcing to play Tannehill.
32. Blaine Gabbert - Jacksonville Bye 6: Gabbert's career could be stunted due to him being forced to start so early. Unfortuanately in todays NFL there's no time to wait. Only 5 times in 15 games did Gabbert exceed 10 pts. The Jags did sink money into getting him more help than just MJD by signing Laurent Robinson and drafting Justin Blackmon.
On the bubble: Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Matt Moore, Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne
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