Thursday, June 7, 2012

2012 Premier Primer: Atlanta Falcons

Over the past 2 NFL seasons few offenses have been as consistent and efficient as the Atlanta Falcons have been.  Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has moved on, accepting the Head Coaching position with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and coincidently Mike Smith has brought former Jags staff mate Dirk Koetter in to run the Atlanta offense in 2012.  Inheriting a far more explosive group than he had to work with in Jacksonville, Koetter is expecting to spread open the offense and Roddy White has expressed that he expects to share more balls this season.
DailyLife Images
Let’s start with the Falcon receiving group. Last season when the Dirty Birds traded their draft lot to Cleveland to acquire the services of Julio Jones many people anticipated that White would lose ground to the explosive rookie. That was far from the case, as the “Hot Rod” once again led all NFL wide outs in targets for the second straight season (181 targets in ’10, 179 in ’11) and was the 5th ranked WR in fantasy. Here’s a look at the effect Jones had on White and tight end Tony Gonzalez from their 2010 production to last season.
2010
Targets
Rec.
Yds.
TD
White
181
115
1389
10
Gonzalez
111
70
656
6
2011
White
179
100
1296
8
Gonzalez
116
80
875
7





You can see White is a model of consistency and even if he draws fewer looks there is no way he still isn’t going to give you WR1 production.  White is currently being drafted as the 8th WR in drafts and overall at 26.7 per FantasyToolbox, three spots behind fellow WR Julio Jones (23.8).
Jones himself was quite productive in his inaugural campaign. Hampered by a hamstring injury he missed 3 games and left another early and still managed 54 rec 959 yds and 8 TD on 95 targets in only those 12 plus games.  He only managed 6 + receptions in 3 games last season and in those games White also posted 6+ catches in all 3. He also showed his boom or bust ability by scoring fewer than 3 pts in 3 games (White 1) but reaching double digits in 6 of his 12 games (White 9).  I like Jones slightly more in standard scoring leagues due to his high yardage ceiling and TD but White still gets the edge in PPR formats barely.
Matt Ryan has been at the controls of the passing attack , finishing as top 10 fantasy quarterback the past 2 seasons. With the addition of Jones, Ryan actually posted nearly identical passing numbers except for an increase in yardage in 2011.
Comp.
Att.
Yds.
TD
INT
Yds/Att
2010
357
571
3705
28
9
6.5
2011
347
566
4177
29
12
7.4

Ryan nearly averaged a full yard more per attempt in 2011 due to the fact he was throwing more passes downfield to his playmakers.  Jones seen 36% of his looks on routes 15 yards or more downfield while White (27.7%) increased (25.9%) the same from his 2010. Gonzalez benefited the most seeing 14.1 % of his targets 15+ yards up the field, his highest total since 2007.  The yardage boost seen Ryan throw for 300+ yards 6 times last season (1 in 2010) and he attempted 40+ passes in 7 games. Ryan is currently being drafted as the10th QB in mocks and could be great value for owners who wait on the QB position.
FanPop Images
A big reason why owners are going to want to add players in the Falcons passing attack is they play the #1 easiest passing schedule in the NFL in 2012.  Only facing 4 defenses (KC,SD,PHI,WAS) that ranked in the top 15 passing defenses all season in 2011 and not one after their week 8 matchup with the Eagles.  The Falcons offensive line does a fantastic job of keeping Ryan from getting hit as well, only allowing 23 sacks in 2010 and 26 in 2011.

The one player expected to be hurt by the new offense is running back Michael Turner. But Turner is so popular as a bust candidate that I believe he’s going to actually be a great value come draft day. Turner really tailed off late last season, only rushing for more than 76 yards in 1 of his final 6 games but he still posted 1371 rushing yards and 12 TDS while reaching 300 carries for the third season in 4 years. Looking at the previous mentioned passing stats the Falcons had and notice that Turner rushed for 1300 yards and double digits TD’s in both of the same seasons while being a top 10 scorer at his position in each. All while not catching passes, so third down back JaQuizz Ridgers still won’t be much of a threat in his production. The fantasy community seems to think he’s going to turn into a fantasy pumpkin this season as he’s being drafted as the 23rd RB and 62 overall. Even with fewer carries he’s still going to provide lower end RB1 numbers as a pick that can be had possibly in the 4th round. Owners going with WR as their first 2 picks will want to look for him as their bell cow if he falls that far in their darfts.  
Sports Illustrated Images
Not only do the Falcons have the league’s best schedule facing opposing pass defenses. They also have the best schedule facing teams who stop the run. Coming up they face only 4 teams (DAL,PHI, NO x2) who ranked in the top half of the league versus the run last season.  2012 points to a fantastic season to own stock in the Falcons offense.
Fantasy predictions:
Ryan:  376/594  4,440 yds 33 TD 12 INT
White: 165 targets 92 catches 1185 yds 10 TD
Jones: 132 targets 76 catches 1230 yds 12 TD
Gonzalez: 105 targets 72 catches 724 yds 6 TD
Turner: 244 carries 1078 yds 10 TD

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